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Simulasi Lengkap UMP-UMK 2026: Kenaikan 7% di Wilayah Ini

Simulasi Lengkap UMP-UMK 2026: Kenaikan 7% di Wilayah Ini

Simulasi Lengkap UMP-UMK 2026 menyoroti prediksi kenaikan upah minimum provinsi (UMP) dan kota/kabupaten (UMK) rata-rata 6-7% dari 2025, dipicu inflasi, survei kebutuhan hidup layak (KHL), pertumbuhan ekonomi, dan negosiasi tripartit buruh-pengusaha-pemerintah.

Latar Belakang Kenaikan

Pemerintah terapkan formula baru berdasarkan Putusan MK No. 91/2023, gabungkan unsur produktivitas, daya beli, dan KHL, tanpa batas maksimal 8% seperti sebelumnya. Simulasi awal dari asosiasi pengusaha dan serikat buruh tunjukkan Jakarta tetap tertinggi nasional, dengan proyeksi Rp5,72-5,78 juta untuk UMP DKI, naik dari Rp5,3 juta tahun lalu.

Daftar Simulasi UMP Provinsi Tertinggi

Berikut proyeksi lengkap berdasarkan skenario 6-7%:

Provinsi UMP 2025 (Rp) Simulasi 6% (Rp) Simulasi 7% (Rp)

DKI Jakarta 5.396.761 5.720.567 5.774.934

Papua 4.279.768 4.536.754 4.578.762

Bangka Belitung 3.870.000 4.102.200 4.141.900

Sulawesi Utara 3.579.000 3.793.740 3.829.530

Aceh 3.686.001 3.907.161 3.944.021

Sumatera Selatan 3.674.778 3.895.264 3.932.013

Sulawesi Selatan 3.657.000 3.876.420 3.913.490

Daftar Simulasi UMK Kota/Kabupaten Tertinggi

UMK di wilayah industri seperti Jabodetabek mendominasi, dengan Kota Bekasi potensial capai Rp6 juta:

Kota/Kabupaten UMK 2025 (Rp) Simulasi 6% (Rp) Simulasi 7% (Rp)

Kota Bekasi 5.690.721 6.032.164 6.091.072

Kab. Karawang 5.596.000 5.931.760 5.988.520

Kab. Bekasi 5.546.561 5.879.355 5.934.820

DKI Jakarta 5.396.761 5.720.567 5.774.934

Kota Depok 5.196.561 5.508.355 5.560.520

Kota Cilegon 5.130.000 5.437.800 5.489.100

Kontroversi dan Dampak Ekonomi

Buruh tuntut kenaikan hingga 11% di Jakarta untuk tutup defisit KHL Rp1 juta/bulan, sementara pengusaha khawatir beban operasional naik 10-15% di sektor manufaktur.

Dampak positif termasuk daya beli naik dorong konsumsi, tapi risiko PHK di UMKM jika formula tak fleksibel; penetapan final Desember 2025 via gubernur/wali kota. Pemerintah harap keseimbangan agar pertumbuhan 5,2% terjaga.

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