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INCO: Kuota Nikel Dipangkas! Peluang atau Ancaman Saham Vale?

INCO: Kuota Nikel Dipangkas! Peluang atau Ancaman Saham Vale?

Pemangkasan kuota produksi nikel PT Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO) untuk RKAB 2026 menjadi sekitar 30% dari yang diajukan, menciptakan tantangan operasional signifikan bagi emiten ini. Meski berpotensi menghambat pasokan bijih ke proyek hilirisasi strategis seperti IGP Pomalaa, Sorowako, dan Morowali, analis melihat peluang dari rebound harga nikel global dan status "green nickel".

Dampak Negatif

Kuota terbatas berisiko memperlambat progres proyek smelter, memaksa INCO beli bijih eksternal dengan harga lebih tinggi, dan tekan margin laba.

Produksi nasional nikel dipangkas ke 250-260 juta ton dari 379 juta ton sebelumnya, tingkatkan risiko hukum kontrak dengan mitra.

Kinerja 2026 diproyeksi stagnan karena volume pendapatan tertekan.

Peluang Positif

Produksi nikel matte 2025 capai 66.848 ton (naik 3% YoY), penjualan 67.351 ton (naik 2% YoY), dengan efisiensi biaya kuat.

Pemulihan harga nikel bisa redam dampak kuota dan dorong margin, ditambah monetisasi bijih saprolit berkadar tinggi.

Analis Korea Investment & Sekuritas serta BRI Danareksa rekomendasikan "beli" meski hati-hati volatilitas.

Aspek	Prospek	Risiko
Jangka Pendek	Stagnan volume, tapi laba positif via efisiensi	Hambatan pasokan proyek
Jangka Panjang	Rebound harga nikel & green nickel premium	Regulasi kuota & keterlambatan capex
Target Harga	Belum dirinci, tapi sentimen positif dominan	Volatilitas komoditas

Vale sedang komunikasikan isu ini ke DPR dan Kem ESDM untuk penyesuaian kuota. Secara keseluruhan, ini lebih condong ke ancaman jangka pendek tapi peluang jika harga nikel pulih.

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