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Mengapa Harga Bitcoin (BTC) Terpuruk Pasca-Risalah FOMC The Fed?

Mengapa Harga Bitcoin (BTC) Terpuruk Pasca-Risalah FOMC The Fed?

Harga Bitcoin (BTC) baru-baru ini terpuruk di bawah level $66.000 setelah rilis risalah rapat FOMC Januari 2026 dari The Fed pada 18 Februari 2026.

Risalah ini menunjukkan perpecahan di kalangan pejabat Fed terkait pemotongan suku bunga lebih lanjut, dengan sebagian mendukung kenaikan jika inflasi tetap tinggi. Penurunan ini memperkuat pola historis di mana BTC sering terkoreksi pasca-kejadian FOMC.

Ringkasan Risalah FOMC

Risalah rapat FOMC 27-28 Januari 2026 mengonfirmasi suku bunga tetap di 3,5%-3,75%, dengan inflasi masih agak tinggi meski ekonomi solid. Beberapa peserta menyatakan pemotongan lebih lanjut layak jika inflasi turun sesuai ekspektasi, tapi yang lain menyarankan jeda panjang untuk evaluasi data. Ada nada hawkish karena kemungkinan kenaikan suku bunga jika inflasi naik, menciptakan ketidakpastian pasar.

Dampak Langsung pada Harga BTC

Mengapa Harga Bitcoin (BTC) Terpuruk Pasca-Risalah FOMC The Fed?

(Foto Harga Bitcoin dari TradingView)

Pasca-rilis risalah, BTC anjlok 2% hingga di bawah $66.000, dari level sebelumnya sekitar $68.000-$70.000. Pasar bereaksi negatif terhadap sinyal "higher for longer" suku bunga, yang menekan aset berisiko seperti kripto karena ekspektasi pelonggaran tertunda. Likuidasi posisi long mencapai jutaan dolar, mempercepat penurunan di tengah Fear & Greed Index ekstrem rendah (skor 10).

Pola Historis dan Faktor Pendukung

Secara historis, BTC turun setelah 7 dari 8 rapat FOMC di 2025, dengan koreksi 6-10% per kejadian, pola yang berulang di 2026. Suku bunga tinggi membuat investor beralih ke aset aman seperti obligasi, kurangi aliran dana ke kripto. Selain itu, arus keluar ETF Bitcoin spot AS capai ratusan juta dolar, ditambah deposit whale ke bursa.

Prospek Jangka Pendek

Pasar antisipasi Fed tahan suku bunga di Maret 2026 (probabilitas 90%), tapi data PCE inflasi 20 Februari bisa jadi katalis rebound jika lebih rendah dari ekspektasi. Dukungan kunci BTC di $65.000; jika jebol, target selanjutnya $60.000, tapi adopsi institusional tetap positif jangka panjang. Investor disarankan tunggu klarifikasi sebelum bertindak, hindari panic selling.

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