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Saham SUPA Bakal Naik Terus? Analisis Teknis Rally vs Risiko ARB

(Foto Saham SUPA dari Google Finansial)

Saham SUPA (PT Super Bank Indonesia Tbk) mengalami rally euforia pasca-IPO pada Desember 2025, tapi terkini terkoreksi tajam ke Rp1.050 akibat profit taking dan ARB, memicu debat apakah momentum naik terus atau risiko ARB mendominasi.

Performa Pasca-IPO

SUPA melantai 16 Desember 2025 dengan harga IPO Rp525-695, langsung ARA 24% ke Rp790, lalu rally ke Rp1.230 (naik 93,7% dari IPO) hingga 19 Desember. Namun, 22 Desember saham anjlok 14,63% menyentuh ARB di Rp1.050 sejak pagi, meski masih +65% dari debut.

Analisis Teknis Rally

RSI 14-hari mencapai 100 (overbought ekstrem), sinyal potensi koreksi lanjut tapi juga kekuatan buyer kuat pasca-breakout. Resistance kunci di Rp1.230-3.270, support horizontal dekat Rp1.050 (ARB level) dengan konfluensi MA20-MA50; rebound mungkin jika volume naik dan bertahan di atas Rp1.100. Momentum sideways-bullish mirip GIAA, target TP1 Rp1.180 (+12%) jika breakout range konsolidasi.

Risiko ARB dan Profit Taking

Valuasi PER 456x (11x atas rata-rata bank digital) mahal, LDR 99%, dan laba Rp122 miliar November solid tapi belum unggul peers, rentan distribusi. Analis sebut fase koreksi wajar post-IPO; tanpa katalis laba kuat, volatil sideways dengan tekanan jual. Pantau IHSG dan berita Grup Emtek untuk hindari ARB berlanjut.

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