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Simulasi Lengkap UMP DKI 2026: Kenaikan 4,9% hingga 6,9%

Simulasi Lengkap UMP DKI 2026: Kenaikan 4,9% hingga 6,9%

Pemprov DKI Jakarta sedang mempersiapkan penetapan Upah Minimum Provinsi (UMP) 2026 dengan formula baru yang mempertimbangkan inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi dikalikan indeks alfa (0,5-0,9). Simulasi menunjukkan kenaikan berkisar 4,9% hingga 6,9% dari UMP 2025 sebesar Rp5.396.761, sehingga UMP potensial mencapai Rp5,66 juta hingga Rp5,77 juta.

Formula Perhitungan

Formula kenaikan UMP 2026 adalah Inflasi + (Pertumbuhan Ekonomi × Alfa), dengan data BPS Q3/2025: inflasi 2,67% dan pertumbuhan ekonomi DKI 4,96%. Rentang alfa 0,5-0,9 menghasilkan persentase kenaikan dari 5,15% (alfa 0,5) hingga 7,13% (alfa 0,9), meski beberapa simulasi menyesuaikan inflasi ke 2,40% untuk rentang 4,88%-6,86%.

Tabel Simulasi UMP

Berikut simulasi lengkap berdasarkan berbagai sumber, dengan UMP 2025 Rp5.396.761 sebagai basis:

Alfa Inflasi Pertumbuhan × Alfa Total Kenaikan (%) Kenaikan (Rp) UMP 2026 (Rp)

0,5 2,67% 2,48% 5,15% 277.933 5.674.694

0,6 2,67% 2,98% 5,64% 304.337 5.701.098

0,7 2,40% 3,47% 5,87% 316.789 5.713.550

0,8 2,40% 3,97% 6,37% 343.773 5.740.534

0,9 2,40% 4,46% 6,86% 370.217 5.766.978

Catatan: Angka bersifat proyeksi dan dapat berubah berdasarkan data final inflasi serta kesepakatan Dewan Pengupahan.

Dampak bagi Pekerja dan Pengusaha

Kenaikan ini diharapkan meningkatkan daya beli buruh di tengah inflasi terkendali, sementara pengusaha diminta beradaptasi melalui efisiensi. Gubernur Pramono menjanjikan pengumuman cepat dan sikap adil, dengan rapat segera untuk titik temu.

Pemprov DKI yakin UMP 2026 pasti naik dan bisa diumumkan lebih awal dari jadwal nasional, disesuaikan kondisi ekonomi Jakarta.

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