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BTC Rugi 6% di 2025: Kerugian Tahunan Pertama Pasca-Halving, Apa Selanjutnya?

BTC Rugi 6% di 2025: Kerugian Tahunan Pertama Pasca-Halving, Apa Selanjutnya?

Bitcoin (BTC) menutup 2025 dengan kerugian sekitar 6%, mencatat penurunan tahunan pertama sejak 2022 dan pasca-halving April 2024—dari puncak $126.000 ke kisaran $88.000 akhir tahun. Tren makro seperti suku bunga tinggi Fed, outflow ETF, dan libur akhir tahun membebani harga, meski inflow institusional sempat dorong ATH Oktober.

Penyebab Kerugian 2025

Pasar kripto alami rollercoaster: rally pasca-Trump election ke $126K, tapi Q4 anjlok 23% akibat likuidasi $300 juta/hari dan Fear & Greed Index di 27 (extreme fear). Halving ke-5 gagal picu bull run tradisional (rata-rata +300% tahun pasca-halving sebelumnya), digantikan konsolidasi karena regulasi Trump 2.0 dan kompetisi AI token.

Data Performa BTC 2025

Periode	Perubahan Harga	Volume Realized Loss	Faktor Utama
Q1-Q3	+40% (ATH $126K)	Rendah	ETF Inflow $50B
Q4	-23%	$300M/hari	Outflow ETF, Likuiditas Tipis
Tahunan	-6%	Tertinggi 9 bulan	Macro (Suku Bunga)

Harga kini $88.630, di atas support $88.200 tapi di bawah MA50 $89.800—risiko test $84K jika gagal $90K.

Apa Selanjutnya di 2026?

Prospek rebound: Trump pro-crypto (Bitcoin reserve?), ETF Solana potensial, dan halving lag effect biasanya picu bull Q1. Prediksi analis: $100K-$150K jika Fed potong suku bunga Maret. Namun, risiko bearish dari regulasi ketat China/AS dan kompetisi altcoin. Investor Indo pantau Indodax untuk entry di $85K, diversifikasi ke gold/BTC ratio.

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