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Depresiasi Rupiah di Tengah Penguatan Harga Saham

Depresiasi Rupiah di Tengah Penguatan Harga Saham

(Foto Kurs Dolar-Rupiah dari Bank BRI)

Rupiah mengalami depresiasi signifikan terhadap dolar AS di awal 2026, mencapai sekitar Rp16.875 per dolar pada 13 Januari, meskipun IHSG terus menguat ke rekor tertinggi seperti 8.954 pada 8 Januari dan bahkan mendekati 9.000.

Tren Pergerakan

IHSG naik dari level rendah 5.675 pada April 2025 menjadi ATH berulang sejak Agustus 2025, didorong optimisme domestik di sektor komoditas, telekomunikasi, dan infrastruktur. Sebaliknya, rupiah melemah dari Rp16.170 pada Agustus 2025 menjadi Rp16.770 pada September, dipicu pelemahan berkelanjutan hingga awal 2026.

Penyebab Ketidakselarasan

Depresiasi rupiah disebabkan sentimen global risk-off yang menguatkan indeks DXY AS, capital outflow investor asing dari pasar modal Indonesia, serta data ekonomi lemah seperti inflasi tinggi dan defisit fiskal. Penguatan IHSG didominasi investor domestik, sehingga harga saham naik tanpa menahan pelemahan mata uang akibat peran investor asing yang menurun.

Implikasi Kebijakan

Bank Indonesia menghadapi ruang sempit untuk pelonggaran moneter di RDG 20-21 Januari 2026 karena kombinasi inflasi dan depresiasi rupiah. Otoritas moneter-fiskal disarankan intervensi valas dan stimulus untuk balikkan tren, sementara prospek IHSG bullish hingga 10.500 dengan fundamental kuat.

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