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IHSG Gagal Tembus 9.000: Penyebab Utama dan Prospek Selanjutnya

IHSG Gagal Tembus 9.000: Penyebab Utama dan Prospek Selanjutnya

(Foto IHSG dari Google Finansial)

IHSG gagal menembus level 9.000 di akhir 2025 meskipun sempat mencapai puncak historis 8.777, ditutup di kisaran 8.644 pada 29 Desember. Penyebab utamanya meliputi pelemahan rupiah di Rp16.770-Rp16.790 per dolar AS, kehati-hatian investor akhir tahun, dan aksi jual saham big caps seperti BBCA serta BMRI.

Penyebab Utama

Tekanan musiman tutup buku menyebabkan likuiditas menyusut dan investor institusi amankan profit, dengan reli di atas 4% sulit terealisasi secara teknikal. Pelemahan rupiah serta rotasi ke saham komoditas dan second liner gagal dorong breakout signifikan. Faktor global seperti ekspektasi pelonggaran moneter 2026 jadi penopang psikologis, tapi risiko domestik dominan.

Prospek 2026

Proyeksi analis menargetkan IHSG 9.000-9.500, didorong penurunan suku bunga, pemulihan ekonomi, dan pertumbuhan laba 8%. Skenario bull case hingga 9.400-10.000 dari OCBC dan JP Morgan, dengan sektor keuangan, emas, tembaga, ritel, serta teknologi sebagai pendorong utama. Bear case sekitar 8.200-7.670 jika rupiah fluktuatif berlanjut.

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