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Prediksi Harga Sawit CPO 2026: Tren Bullish di Tengah Suplai Ketat

Prediksi Harga Sawit CPO 2026: Tren Bullish di Tengah Suplai Ketat

Harga minyak sawit mentah (CPO) diprediksi bertahan tinggi pada 2026, bergerak di kisaran RM4.200-4.800 per ton atau setara US$850-1.000 per ton, didorong suplai global terbatas dan permintaan biodiesel kuat.

Analis Phintraco Sekuritas menyoroti stagnasi produksi Indonesia-Malaysia akibat tanaman menua dan program peremajaan lambat, sementara B50 tekan ekspor. Proyeksi ini beri harapan petani sawit Indonesia hadapi tantangan struktural.

Faktor Pendorong Kenaikan Harga

Suplai ketat: Produksi global stagnan, Indonesia turun 9,3% pada 2024 akibat El Nino, potensi La Nina 2026 tambah curah hujan tapi tak signifikan.

Kebutuhan biodiesel B50: Konsumsi domestik capai 21-22 juta ton CPO, kurangi stok ekspor dan dorong harga global.

Permintaan solid: Pasar EV dan energi hijau tingkatkan kebutuhan nikel-related, tapi sawit untung dari biodiesel.

Risiko dan Tantangan Produksi

Ekonom CORE proyeksikan puncak US$1.000 per ton jika B50 full implementasi, tapi waspadai penurunan produksi 4-5% akibat DMO ketat. Trading Economics ramal turun ke RM3.617 awal 2026 jika produksi pulih. Petani disarankan tingkatkan produktivitas via peremajaan

Implikasi bagi Industri Sawit Indonesia

Prospek bullish ini kuatkan posisi sawit sebagai andalan ekspor, tapi butuh adaptasi regulasi lingkungan dan hilirisasi. Harga stabil di atas RM4.000 beri margin petani, dorong investasi berkelanjutan. Pantau cuaca dan kebijakan DMO untuk update akurat.

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