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UMP 2026 Naik 5,7%, Dorong Konsumsi & Saham Konsumer

UMP 2026 Naik 5,7%, Dorong Konsumsi & Saham Konsumer

UMP 2026 naik rata-rata sekitar 5,7-6,5% berdasarkan formula baru Presiden Prabowo: inflasi + (pertumbuhan ekonomi × indeks alfa 0,5-0,9), menekan disparitas antarprovinsi. Kenaikan ini dorong daya beli pekerja kelas bawah, tingkatkan konsumsi rumah tangga hingga 0,3-0,5% dari PDB. Sektor saham konsumer seperti ritel, makanan-minuman, dan e-commerce diproyeksi naik 8-12% YTD 2026.

Besaran UMP Terpilih

DKI Jakarta capai Rp5,73 juta (naik 6,17%), Jawa Barat Rp2,32 juta (5,77%), Jawa Tengah Rp2,33 juta (7,28%)—terendah nasional. Provinsi lain seperti Sumut (7,9%), Riau (7,74%), dan Jatim (6,11%) tunjukkan variasi regional. Papua Pegunungan dan Selatan naik moderat 5,2% ke Rp4,51 juta.

Dampak Konsumsi

Kenaikan UMP tambah Rp200-400 ribu per pekerja per bulan, picu belanja primer makanan, transportasi, dan gadget—sektor prioritas user seperti Gojek/Grab. Proyeksi konsumsi kuartal I 2026 naik 5,2% yoy, stabilkan inflasi di 2,5±1%. UMKM dan ritel modern untung besar dari efek multiplier.

Saham Konsumer Unggulan

UMP 2026 Naik 5,7%, Dorong Konsumsi & Saham Konsumer

(Foto Saham MYOR dari Google Finansial)

ICBP, MYOR, ICBP: Naik 10-15% dari margin stabil + volume.

AMRT, MAPI: Ritel/food ekspansi ke tier-2 kota.

GOTO, BUKA: Lonjakan transaksi ride-hailing & e-commerce.

Strategi: Akumulasi saham konsumer defensif saat IHSG koreksi pasca-UMP, target return 20% hingga Juni 2026.

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